We’re 95 per cent certain there’s tongue involved here. Pic: AFP Source: AFP
THE numbers, quite literally, don’t add up.
As votes are counted in Crimea’s referendum for independence, an astonishing 95 per cent of voters in the deeply divided region have sided with the Russians.
Seasoned observers of the region are scratching their heads over the phenomenally one-sided result. Meanwhile those who deal in raw statistics are equally flummoxed.
Back to the bad old days? Careful what you wish for, mate. Pic: AFP. Source: AFP
John Croucher is Professor of Statistics at Macquarie Graduate School of Management in Sydney. He is absolutely not an expert in Eastern European politics, but he is a neutral voice who can say whether a figure of 95 per cent is statistically likely in any referendum about anything – let alone a referendum as hotly debated as this.
“I would say it’s a remarkable result,” Professor Croucher told news.com.au.
“Even when both sides agree, you still get only about 80 or 90 per cent.”
As an example, Prof. Croucher steered us in the direction of the 1967 Australian referendum, in which Australians voted to count Aboriginal people as part of the overall population.
That complete and utter no-brainer got 90 per cent of the vote.
Yet here you’ve got Crimea, with its population at loggerheads over whether to rejoin Russia or not, and 95 per cent vote in favour or Russia. Sounds a bit suss, doesn’t it?
One reason for the hugely lopsided result could be that many Crimeans chose to boycott the poll over the wording of the questions.
It was THIS close to 100 per cent approval for Russia, if you believe the polls. Pic: AFP Source: AFP
Option One offered reunification with Russia. Option Two offered “restoring the 1992 Constitution and the status of Crimea as a part of Ukraine”.
They sounded like different options, but as international news agencies reported, the second option opens up a sneaky constitutional back door to end up with Russia anyway.
So the choice was basically Russia or Russia. That explains why so many anti-Russian Crimeans (especially the historically persecuted Tatar minority) boycotted the poll.
It also explains why the pro-Russia vote was so popular among those who turned out.
There are also whispers the numbers have been fudged, suggestions fuelled by the heavy Russian military presence which has occupied the Crimean peninsula since February.
But the poll may yet be disregarded by the international community.
“The referendum is illegal and illegitimate and its outcome will not be recognised,” the European Union and European Council heads said overnight in a joint statement.
“We reject the ‘referendum’ that took place today in the Crimean region of Ukraine,” the White House said.
A council of Crimea’s Tatar minority called on Ukrainians and the international community to “condemn vigorously an act of aggression committed by the Russian Federation and its plans to annex Crimea.”
The news is not so good for members of Crimea’s Tatar ethnicity. Pic: AP Source: AFP
In a world where it’s hard to get 95 per cent of people to agree on anything, there seems to be almost 100 per cent agreement that this Crimean referendum result is absolutely meaningless.
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